This list includes publications resulting from () our main research and () studies that we have contributed to. PopEcol members are underlined.

In press

  • Behr DM, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (in press) Combining human attitude and habitat suitability: a unified socio-ecological suitability model for the wolf in Switzerland. Journal of Applied Ecology
  • Zweerus NL, Sommer S, Fontaneto D, Ozgul A (in press) Life-history responses to environmental change revealed by resurrected rotifers from a historically polluted lake. Hydrobiologia 
  • Băncilă RI, Cogălniceanu D, Ozgul A, Schmidt BR (in press) The effect of aquatic and terrestrial habitat characteristics on occurrence and breeding probability in a montane amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit multistate occupancy model. Population Ecology
  • Sommer S, van Benthem KJ, Fontaneto D, Ozgul A (in press) Are generic early-warning signals reliable indicators of population collapse in rotifers? Hydrobiologia 


  • van Benthem KJ, Froy H, Coulson T, Getz LL, Oli MK, Ozgul A (2017) Trait–demography relationships underlying small mammal population fluctuations. Journal of Animal Ecology 86: 348–358
  • van Benthem KJ*, Bruijning M*, Bonnet T*, Jongejans E**, Postma E**, Ozgul A** (2017) Disentangling evolutionary, plastic and demographic processes underlying trait dynamics: A review of four frameworks. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 8: 75–85 (shared *first and **last authorship)
  • Cizauskas C, Carlson C, Burgio K, Clements C, Dougherty E, Harris N, Phillips A (2017) Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach. Royal Society Open Science 4: 160535
  • Chabert AL, Cozzi G, Broekhuis F, Hartley R, McNutt J (2017) Serosurvey for selected viral pathogens among sympatric species of the African large predator guild in northern Botswana. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 53: 170–175


  • Nater C, Canale C, van Benthem KJ, Yuen C-H, Schoepf I, Pillay N, Ozgul A, Schradin C (2016) Interactive effects of exogenous and endogenous factors on demographic rates of an African rodent. Oikos 125: 1838–1848 
  • Cornioley T, Börger L, Ozgul A, Weimerskirch H (2016) Impact of changing wind conditions on foraging and incubation success in male and female wandering albatrosses. Journal of Animal Ecology 85: 1318–1327 
  • Clements CF, Ozgul A (2016) Rate of forcing and the forecastability of critical transitions. Ecology and Evolution 6: 7787–7793 
  • Cruickshank SS, Ozgul A, Zumbach S, Schmidt BR (2016) Quantifying population declines based on presence-only records for Red List assessments. Conservation Biology 30: 1112–1121 
  • Cozzi G, Chynoweth M, Kusak J, Çoban E, Çoban A, Ozgul A*, Şekercioğlu ÇH* (2016) Anthropogenic food resources foster the coexistence of distinct life history strategies: year-round sedentary and migratory brown bears. Journal of Zoology 300: 142–150 (shared *last authorship) 
  • Canale CI, Ozgul A, Allaine D, Cohas A (2016) Differential plasticity of structural size and mass in a hibernating mammal to environmental change. Global Change Biology 22: 3286–3303 
  • Băncilă RI, Ozgul A, Hartel T, Sos T, Schmidt RB (2016) Direct negative density-dependence in a pond-breeding frog population. Ecography 39: 449–455 
  • Sommer S, Piscia R, Manca M, Fontaneto D, Ozgul A (2016) Demographic cost and mechanisms of adaptation to environmental stress in resurrected Daphnia. Journal of Limnology 75(s2): 30–35 
  • Sommer S, Nandini S, Sarma SSS, Ozgul A, Fontaneto D (2016) Rotifers in Lake Orta: a potential ecological and evolutionary model system. Journal of Limnology 75(s2): 67–75 
  • Clements CF, Ozgul A (2016) Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse. Nature Communications 7: 10984 
  • Brooks ME, Mugabo M, Rodgers GM, Benton TG, Ozgul A (2016) How well can body size represent effects of the environment on demographic rates? Disentangling correlated explanatory variables. Journal of Animal Ecology 85: 318–328
  • Giraudeau M, Ziegler AK, Pick JL, Ducatez S, Canale CI, Tschirren B (2016) Interactive effects of yolk testosterone and carotenoid on prenatal growth and offspring physiology in a precocial bird. Behavioral Ecology 28: 3138
  • Pimiento C, MacFadden B, Clements C, Velez-Juarbe J, Jaramillo C, Silliman B (2016) Geographic distribution patterns of Carcharocles megalodon over time reveal clues about mechanisms of extinction. Journal of Biogeography 43: 1645–1655 
  • Dougherty E, Carlson C, Bueno V, Burgio K, Cizauskas C, Clements C, Seidel D, Harris N (2016) Paradigms for parasite conservation: adaptive approaches for a neglected target. Conservation Biology 30: 724–733 
  • Grant EHC , Miller DAW, Schmidt BR, Adams MJ, Amburgey SM, Chambert T, Cruickshank SS, Fisher RN, Green DM, Hossack BR, Johnson PTJ, Joseph MB, Rittenhouse TAG, Ryan ME, Waddle JH, Walls SC, Bailey LL, Feller GM, Gorman TA, Ray AM, Pilliod DS, Price SJ, Saenz D, Sadinski W, Muths E (2016) Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines. Scientific Reports 6: 25625 
  • Tschirren B, Ziegler AK, Canale CI, Okuliarová M, Zeman M, Giraudeau M (2016) High yolk testosterone transfer is associated with an increased female metabolic rate. Physiological and Biochemical Zoology 89: 448–452


  • Turnbull LA, Ozgul A, Accouche W, Baxter R, ChongSeng L, Currie J, Doak N, Hansen DM, Pistorius P, Richards H, van de Crommenacker J, von Brandis R, Fleischer-Dogley F, Bunbury N (2015) Persistence of distinctive morphotypes in the native range of the CITES-listed Aldabra giant tortoise. Ecology and Evolution 5: 5499–5508 
  • Cozzi G, Börger L, Hutter P, Abegg D, Beran C, McNutt J, Ozgul A (2015) Effect of trophy hunting leftovers on the ranging behaviour of large carnivores: A case study on spotted hyenas. PLoS ONE 10(3): e0121471 
  • Clements C, Drake J, Griffiths J, Ozgul A (2015) Factors affecting the detectability of early warning signals in wild populations. American Naturalist 186: 50–58 
  • Petchey OL, Pontarp M, Massie TM, Kéfi S, Ozgul A, Weilenmann M, Palamara JM, Altermatt F, Matthews BJ, Levine JM, Dylan CZ, McGill BJ, Schaepman ME, Schmid B, Spaak P, Beckerman AP, Pennekamp F, Pearse IS (2015) The Ecological Forecast Horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants. Ecology Letters 18: 597–611 
  • Ozgul A, Bateman AW, English S, Coulson T, Clutton-Brock TH (2014) Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder, Suricata suricatta. Journal of Animal Ecology 83: 1357–1366 
  • English S, Bateman A, Mares R, Ozgul A, Clutton-Brock TH (2014) Maternal, social and abiotic environment effects on growth vary across life stages in a cooperative mammal. Journal of Animal Ecology 83: 332–342 
  • Bateman A, Ozgul A, Nielsen JF, Coulson T, Clutton-Brock T (2013) Social structure mediates environmental effects on group size in an obligate cooperative breeder, Suricata suricatta.  Ecology 94: 587–597 
  • Sæther B-E, Coulson T, Grøtan V, Engen S, Altwegg R, Armitage KB, Barbraud C, Becker PH, Blumstein DT, Dobson FS, Festa-Bianchet M, Gaillard J-M, Jenkins A, Jones C, Nicoll MAC, Norris K, Oli MK, Ozgul A, Weimerskirch H (2013) How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments. American Naturalist 182: 743–759 
  • Engen S, Sæther B-E, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Clutton-Brock TH, Dobson FS, Festa-Bianchet M, Oli MK, Ozgul A (2013) Estimating the effect of temporally autocorrelated environments on the demography of density-independent age-structured populations. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4: 573–584 
  • Dietz MS, Murdock CC, Romero M, Ozgul A, Fufopoulos J (2013) Distance to a road is associated with reproductive success and physiological stress response in a migratory landbird. Wilson Journal of Ornithology 125: 50–61 
  • Ozgul A, Coulson T, Reynolds A, Cameron T, Benton T (2012) Population responses to perturbations: the importance of trait-based analysis illustrated through a microcosm experiment. American Naturalist 179: 582–594 
  • Bateman A, Ozgul A, Coulson T, Clutton-Brock T (2012) Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta. Journal of Animal Ecology 81: 628–369 

<2012 (before Zurich)

  • Goswami VR, Getz LL, Hostetler JA, Ozgul A, Oli MK (2011) Synergistic influences of phase, density and climatic variation on the dynamics of fluctuating populations.  Ecology 92: 1680–1690
  • Armitage KB, Van Vuren DH, Ozgul A, Oli MK (2011) Proximate causes of natal dispersal in female yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris. Ecology 92: 218–227 
  • Ozgul A, Childs DZ, Oli MK, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Olson LE, Tuljapurkar S, Coulson S (2010) Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.  Nature 466: 482–485 
  • Struve J, Lorenzen K, Blanchard J, Börger L, Bunnefeld N, Edwards C, Hortal J, MacCall A, Matthiopoulos JF, Moorter BV, Ozgul A, Royer F, Singh N, Yesson C, Bernard R (2010) Lost in space? Searching for directions in the spatial modelling of individuals, populations and species ranges.  Biology Letters 6: 575–578 
  • Ezard T, Bullock J, Dalgleish H, Millon A, Pelletier F, Ozgul A, Koons D (2010) Matrix models for a changeable world: the importance of transient dynamics in population management.  Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 515–523 
  • Wendland L, Wooding J, White CL, Demcovitz D, Littell R, Berish JD, Ozgul A, Oli MK, Klein PA, Christman MC, Brown MB (2010) Social behavior drives the dynamics of respiratory disease in threatened tortoises.  Ecology 91: 1257–1262 
  • Ozgul A, Tuljapurkar S, Benton TG, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Coulson T (2009) The dynamics of phenotypic change and the shrinking sheep of St. Kilda.  Science 325: 464–467 
  • Ozgul A, Oli MK, Bolker BM, Perez-Heydrich C (2009) Upper respiratory tract disease, force of infection, and effects on survival of gopher tortoises.  Ecological Applications 19: 786–798 
  • Ozgul A, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Van Vuren DH, Oli MK (2009) Influence of local demographic processes on the metapopulation dynamics of the yellow-bellied marmot.  American Naturalist 173: 517–530 
  • Borrego NOzgul A, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Oli MK (2008) Spatiotemporal variation in survival of male yellow-bellied marmots. Journal of Mammalogy 89: 365–373 
  • Ozgul A, Oli MK, Olson LE, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB (2007) Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.  Oecologia 154: 95–106 
  • Getz LL, Ozgul A, Oli MK, Hofmann JE, McGuire B (2007) Dynamics of sympatric vole populations: Influence of interspecific competition.  Acta Zoologica Sinica 53: 800–811 
  • Ozgul A, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Oli MK (2006) Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates: Implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.  Ecology 87: 1027–1037 
  • Ozgul A, Armitage KB, Oli MK, Blumstein DT, VanVuren DH (2006) Effects of patch quality and network structure on patch occupancy dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation. Journal of Animal Ecology 75: 191–202 
  • Dodd CK, Ozgul A, Oli MK (2006) Influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles.  Ecological Applications 16: 1936–1944 
  • Blumstein DT, Ozgul A, Yovovich V, VanVuren DH, Armitage KB (2006) Effect of predation risk on the presence and persistence of yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) colonies.  Journal of Zoology 270: 132–138 
  • Getz LL, Ozgul A, Oli MK, Hofmann JE, McGuire B CK (2006) Dynamics of vole populations: an experimental evaluation of the influence of food resources.  Acta Theriologica Sinica 26: 114–122 
  • Getz LL, Oli MK, Hofmann JE, McGuire B, Ozgul A (2005) Factors influencing movement distances of two species of sympatric voles. Journal of Mammalogy 86: 647–654 
  • Ozgul A, Getz LL, Oli MK (2004) Demography of fluctuating populations: temporal and phase-related changes in vital rates of Microtus ochrogaster.  Journal of Animal Ecology 73: 201–215 
  • Blumstein DT, Runyan A, Seymour M, Nicodemus A, Ozgul A, Ransler F, Im S, Stark T, Zugmeyer C, Daniel JC (2004) Locomotor ability and wariness in yellow-bellied marmots.  Ethology 110: 615–634 
  • Furman A & Ozgul A (2004) The distribution of cave-dwelling bats and conservation status of underground habitats in Northwestern Turkey.  Biological Conservation 120: 243–248 
  • Karatas A & Ozgul A (2003) On the occurrence of Myotis emarginatus (Geoffroy, 1806) in Turkey.  Zoology in the Middle East 28: 17-24 
  • Furman A & Ozgul A (2002) Distribution of cave-dwelling bats and conservation status of underground habitats in the Istanbul area. Ecological Research 17: 69–-77 
  • Ozgul A, Bilgin R, Furman A (2000) Cave-dwelling bats of Çatalca – Kocaeli Region, Northwestern Turkey.  Proceedings of the 8th European Bat Research Symposium (ed. BW Woloszyn) 17: 191–198