Publications

This list includes publications resulting from () our main research and () studies that we have contributed to. PopEcol members are underlined; shared authorships are *starred.

2017

  • Brooks M, Clements CF, Pemberton J, Ozgul A (2017) Estimation of individual growth trajectories when repeated measures are missing. American Naturalist
  • Cruickshank SS, Schmidt BR (2017) Error rates and variation between observers are reduced with the use of photographic matching software for capture-recapture studies. Amphibia-Reptilia
  • Clements CF, Blanchard JL, Nash KL, Hindell MA, Ozgul A (2017) Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks. Nature Ecology & Evolution 
  • Cornioley T, Jenouvrier S, Börger L, Weimerskirch H, Ozgul A (2017) Fathers matter: Male body mass affects life-history traits in a size-dimorphic seabird. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 
  • Behr DM, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2017) Combining human attitude and habitat suitability: a unified socio-ecological suitability model for the wolf in Switzerland. Journal of Applied Ecology
  • Zweerus NL, Sommer S, Fontaneto D, Ozgul A (2017) Life-history responses to environmental change revealed by resurrected rotifers from a historically polluted lake. Hydrobiologia 
  • van Benthem KJ*, Bruijning M*, Bonnet T*, Jongejans E**, Postma E**, Ozgul A** (2017) Disentangling evolutionary, plastic and demographic processes underlying trait dynamics: A review of four frameworks. Methods in Ecology and Evolution
  • Sommer S, van Benthem KJ, Fontaneto D, Ozgul A (2017) Are generic early-warning signals reliable indicators of population collapse in rotifers? Hydrobiologia 
  • Băncilă RI, Cogălniceanu D, Ozgul A, Schmidt BR (2017) The effect of aquatic and terrestrial habitat characteristics on occurrence and breeding probability in a montane amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit multistate occupancy model. Population Ecology
  • Plăiaşu R, Ozgul A, Schmidt BR, Băncilă RI (2017) Estimation of apparent survival probability of the harvestman Paranemastoma sillii sillii (Herman, 1871) from two caves. Animal Biology 
  • van Benthem KJ*, Froy H*, Coulson T, Getz LL, Oli MK, Ozgul A (2017) Trait–demography relationships underlying small mammal population fluctuations. Journal of Animal Ecology 
  • Coulson T, Kendall BE, Barthold J, Plard F, Schindler S, Ozgul A, Gaillard J-M (2017) Modeling adaptive and nonadaptive responses of populations to environmental change. American Naturalist 
  • Cizauskas C, Carlson C, Burgio K, Clements C, Dougherty E, Harris N, Phillips A (2017) Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach. Royal Society Open Science
  • Chabert AL, Cozzi G, Broekhuis F, Hartley R, McNutt J (2017) Serosurvey for selected viral pathogens among sympatric species of the African large predator guild in northern Botswana. Journal of Wildlife Diseases

2016

  • Nater C, Canale C, van Benthem KJ, Yuen C-H, Schoepf I, Pillay N, Ozgul A, Schradin C (2016) Interactive effects of exogenous and endogenous factors on demographic rates of an African rodent. Oikos 
  • Cornioley T, Börger L, Ozgul A, Weimerskirch H (2016) Impact of changing wind conditions on foraging and incubation success in male and female wandering albatrosses. Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Clements CF, Ozgul A (2016) Rate of forcing and the forecastability of critical transitions. Ecology and Evolution
  • Cruickshank SS, Ozgul A, Zumbach S, Schmidt BR (2016) Quantifying population declines based on presence-only records for Red List assessments. Conservation Biology
  • Cozzi G, Chynoweth M, Kusak J, Çoban E, Çoban A, Ozgul A*, Şekercioğlu ÇH* (2016) Anthropogenic food resources foster the coexistence of distinct life history strategies: year-round sedentary and migratory brown bears. Journal of Zoology 
  • Canale CI, Ozgul A, Allaine D, Cohas A (2016) Differential plasticity of structural size and mass in a hibernating mammal to environmental change. Global Change Biology
  • Băncilă RI, Ozgul A, Hartel T, Sos T, Schmidt RB (2016) Direct negative density-dependence in a pond-breeding frog population. Ecography
  • Sommer S, Piscia R, Manca M, Fontaneto D, Ozgul A (2016) Demographic cost and mechanisms of adaptation to environmental stress in resurrected Daphnia. Journal of Limnology
  • Sommer S, Nandini S, Sarma SSS, Ozgul A, Fontaneto D (2016) Rotifers in Lake Orta: a potential ecological and evolutionary model system. Journal of Limnology 
  • Clements CF, Ozgul A (2016) Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse. Nature Communications
  • Brooks ME, Mugabo M, Rodgers GM, Benton TG, Ozgul A (2016) How well can body size represent effects of the environment on demographic rates? Disentangling correlated explanatory variables. Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Giraudeau M, Ziegler AK, Pick JL, Ducatez S, Canale CI, Tschirren B (2016) Interactive effects of yolk testosterone and carotenoid on prenatal growth and offspring physiology in a precocial bird. Behavioral Ecology
  • Pimiento C, MacFadden B, Clements C, Velez-Juarbe J, Jaramillo C, Silliman B (2016) Geographic distribution patterns of Carcharocles megalodon over time reveal clues about mechanisms of extinction. Journal of Biogeography
  • Dougherty E, Carlson C, Bueno V, Burgio K, Cizauskas C, Clements C, Seidel D, Harris N (2016) Paradigms for parasite conservation: adaptive approaches for a neglected target. Conservation Biology
  • Grant EHC , Miller DAW, Schmidt BR, Adams MJ, Amburgey SM, Chambert T, Cruickshank SS, Fisher RN, Green DM, Hossack BR, Johnson PTJ, Joseph MB, Rittenhouse TAG, Ryan ME, Waddle JH, Walls SC, Bailey LL, Feller GM, Gorman TA, Ray AM, Pilliod DS, Price SJ, Saenz D, Sadinski W, Muths E (2016) Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines. Scientific Reports
  • Tschirren B, Ziegler AK, Canale CI, Okuliarová M, Zeman M, Giraudeau M (2016) High yolk testosterone transfer is associated with an increased female metabolic rate. Physiological and Biochemical Zoology

2012-2015

  • Turnbull LA, Ozgul A, Accouche W, Baxter R, ChongSeng L, Currie J, Doak N, Hansen DM, Pistorius P, Richards H, van de Crommenacker J, von Brandis R, Fleischer-Dogley F, Bunbury N (2015) Persistence of distinctive morphotypes in the native range of the CITES-listed Aldabra giant tortoise. Ecology and Evolution
  • Cozzi G, Börger L, Hutter P, Abegg D, Beran C, McNutt J, Ozgul A (2015) Effect of trophy hunting leftovers on the ranging behaviour of large carnivores: A case study on spotted hyenas. PLoS ONE
  • Clements C, Drake J, Griffiths J, Ozgul A (2015) Factors affecting the detectability of early warning signals in wild populations. American Naturalist
  • Petchey OL, Pontarp M, Massie TM, Kéfi S, Ozgul A, Weilenmann M, Palamara JM, Altermatt F, Matthews BJ, Levine JM, Dylan CZ, McGill BJ, Schaepman ME, Schmid B, Spaak P, Beckerman AP, Pennekamp F, Pearse IS (2015) The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants. Ecology Letters
  • Ozgul A, Bateman AW, English S, Coulson T, Clutton-Brock TH (2014) Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder, Suricata suricatta. Journal of Animal Ecology
  • English S, Bateman A, Mares R, Ozgul A, Clutton-Brock TH (2014) Maternal, social and abiotic environment effects on growth vary across life stages in a cooperative mammal. Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Bateman A, Ozgul A, Nielsen JF, Coulson T, Clutton-Brock T (2013) Social structure mediates environmental effects on group size in an obligate cooperative breeder, Suricata suricatta.  Ecology
  • Sæther B-E, Coulson T, Grøtan V, Engen S, Altwegg R, Armitage KB, Barbraud C, Becker PH, Blumstein DT, Dobson FS, Festa-Bianchet M, Gaillard J-M, Jenkins A, Jones C, Nicoll MAC, Norris K, Oli MK, Ozgul A, Weimerskirch H (2013) How life history influences population dynamics in fluctuating environments. American Naturalist
  • Engen S, Sæther B-E, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Clutton-Brock TH, Dobson FS, Festa-Bianchet M, Oli MK, Ozgul A (2013) Estimating the effect of temporally autocorrelated environments on the demography of density-independent age-structured populations. Methods in Ecology and Evolution
  • Dietz MS, Murdock CC, Romero M, Ozgul A, Fufopoulos J (2013) Distance to a road is associated with reproductive success and physiological stress response in a migratory landbird. Wilson Journal of Ornithology
  • Ozgul A, Coulson T, Reynolds A, Cameron T, Benton T (2012) Population responses to perturbations: the importance of trait-based analysis illustrated through a microcosm experiment. American Naturalist
  • Bateman A, Ozgul A, Coulson T, Clutton-Brock T (2012) Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta. Journal of Animal Ecology

<2012 (before Zurich)

  • Goswami VR, Getz LL, Hostetler JA, Ozgul A, Oli MK (2011) Synergistic influences of phase, density and climatic variation on the dynamics of fluctuating populations.  Ecology
  • Armitage KB, Van Vuren DH, Ozgul A, Oli MK (2011) Proximate causes of natal dispersal in female yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris. Ecology
  • Ozgul A, Childs DZ, Oli MK, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Olson LE, Tuljapurkar S, Coulson S (2010) Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.  Nature
  • Struve J, Lorenzen K, Blanchard J, Börger L, Bunnefeld N, Edwards C, Hortal J, MacCall A, Matthiopoulos JF, Moorter BV, Ozgul A, Royer F, Singh N, Yesson C, Bernard R (2010) Lost in space? Searching for directions in the spatial modelling of individuals, populations and species ranges.  Biology Letters
  • Ezard T, Bullock J, Dalgleish H, Millon A, Pelletier F, Ozgul A, Koons D (2010) Matrix models for a changeable world: the importance of transient dynamics in population management.  Journal of Applied Ecology
  • Wendland L, Wooding J, White CL, Demcovitz D, Littell R, Berish JD, Ozgul A, Oli MK, Klein PA, Christman MC, Brown MB (2010) Social behavior drives the dynamics of respiratory disease in threatened tortoises.  Ecology
  • Ozgul A, Tuljapurkar S, Benton TG, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Coulson T (2009) The dynamics of phenotypic change and the shrinking sheep of St. Kilda.  Science
  • Ozgul A, Oli MK, Bolker BM, Perez-Heydrich C (2009) Upper respiratory tract disease, force of infection, and effects on survival of gopher tortoises.  Ecological Applications
  • Ozgul A, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Van Vuren DH, Oli MK (2009) Influence of local demographic processes on the metapopulation dynamics of the yellow-bellied marmot.  American Naturalist
  • Borrego NOzgul A, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Oli MK (2008) Spatiotemporal variation in survival of male yellow-bellied marmots. Journal of Mammalogy
  • Ozgul A, Oli MK, Olson LE, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB (2007) Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.  Oecologia 
  • Getz LL, Ozgul A, Oli MK, Hofmann JE, McGuire B (2007) Dynamics of sympatric vole populations: Influence of interspecific competition.  Acta Zoologica Sinica
  • Ozgul A, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Oli MK (2006) Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates: Implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.  Ecology
  • Ozgul A, Armitage KB, Oli MK, Blumstein DT, VanVuren DH (2006) Effects of patch quality and network structure on patch occupancy dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation. Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Dodd CK, Ozgul A, Oli MK (2006) Influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles.  Ecological Applications
  • Blumstein DT, Ozgul A, Yovovich V, VanVuren DH, Armitage KB (2006) Effect of predation risk on the presence and persistence of yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) colonies.  Journal of Zoology
  • Getz LL, Ozgul A, Oli MK, Hofmann JE, McGuire B CK (2006) Dynamics of vole populations: an experimental evaluation of the influence of food resources.  Acta Theriologica Sinica
  • Getz LL, Oli MK, Hofmann JE, McGuire B, Ozgul A (2005) Factors influencing movement distances of two species of sympatric voles. Journal of Mammalogy
  • Ozgul A, Getz LL, Oli MK (2004) Demography of fluctuating populations: temporal and phase-related changes in vital rates of Microtus ochrogaster.  Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Blumstein DT, Runyan A, Seymour M, Nicodemus A, Ozgul A, Ransler F, Im S, Stark T, Zugmeyer C, Daniel JC (2004) Locomotor ability and wariness in yellow-bellied marmots.  Ethology
  • Furman A & Ozgul A (2004) The distribution of cave-dwelling bats and conservation status of underground habitats in Northwestern Turkey.  Biological Conservation
  • Karatas A & Ozgul A (2003) On the occurrence of Myotis emarginatus (Geoffroy, 1806) in Turkey.  Zoology in the Middle East
  • Furman A & Ozgul A (2002) Distribution of cave-dwelling bats and conservation status of underground habitats in the Istanbul area. Ecological Research
  • Ozgul A, Bilgin R, Furman A (2000) Cave-dwelling bats of Çatalca – Kocaeli Region, Northwestern Turkey.  Proceedings of the 8th European Bat Research Symposium (ed. BW Woloszyn)